Francesco Maestrelli vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Rodriguez has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 45.06% of points compared to Maestrelli’s 44.61% in recent matches. Is this a critical factor? It does have a high correlation with match outcomes.
• Maestrelli outperforms Rodriguez in return game stats, winning 46.1% of their opponent’s second serve points compared to Rodriguez's 44.88%, suggesting a potential advantage.
• On first serve returns, Maestrelli again leads with 27.24% over Rodriguez's 25.92%, which could be pivotal in this matchup.
• Maestrelli excels in break point saves, achieving a 56.98% success rate compared to Rodriguez’s 45.63%, indicating strong under-pressure performance.
• Over the past year, Rodriguez has a slightly higher win rate at 64.18% compared to Maestrelli’s 62.34%, despite this, the margin is narrow.
• Rodriguez shines on clay with a 65% career win rate, while Maestrelli thrives on hard courts with a 57% win rate, hinting at surface preferences.
• Rodriguez mostly competes in Futures/ITF $10K tournaments, winning 72.92% of matches, while Maestrelli faces tougher Challenger/ITF > $10K opponents, winning 62.71%.
• In deciding sets over the last year, Maestrelli holds an edge, winning 75% compared to Rodriguez's 65%.
• Both players struggle on their worst surfaces—with Rodriguez never winning on indoor hard courts and Maestrelli on grass.
• Maestrelli faces opponents with a higher average rank of 344.35 versus Rodriguez's 435, indicating tougher competition.
• In breakpoint conversion, Maestrelli again leads, converting 34.32% compared to Rodriguez’s 30.94%, critical for in-game shifts.

Editorial Prediction (September 15, 2025, UTC):

As we analyze the performance data of Rodriguez and Maestrelli, several key insights emerge. Both players have had solid showings over the past year with close win percentages, although Rodriguez slightly edges out in overall match wins.

However, Maestrelli demonstrates superior abilities in several areas crucial for tight matches. His prowess lies in handling breakpoints, better return game statistics, and consistent performance under pressure, providing him an edge.

Although Rodriguez shows strength on clay and competes well in deciding sets, the broader spectrum of factors leans in Maestrelli’s favor. Given these insights and his encounters with higher-ranked opponents, Maestrelli is slightly favored to win the upcoming match.